A changed Brexit vote....

By Miko Keen 

Financial Times Inspired Content

Recently disclosed Cabinet Office documents highlight how the UK government’s decision in 2004 to allow free movement for workers from new EU member states significantly shaped the political landscape leading to the Brexit referendum in 2016. Prime Minister Tony Blair’s administration opted for minimal restrictions on labor market access for citizens of 10 new EU countries, including Poland and Hungary, despite warnings from senior cabinet members about potential pressures on housing and the welfare system.

At the time, the Home Office estimated that only 5,000-13,000 migrants would arrive annually. This projection was dramatically off the mark, with net EU migration reaching 96,000 by 2005 and climbing to 142,000 by 2014. This substantial and unexpected influx of EU migrants became a focal point of public discontent, fueling anti-immigration sentiment and increasing skepticism about the UK’s membership in the EU. By the 2016 Brexit referendum, immigration had become one of the most contentious political issues, with many voters citing concerns over the strain on public services and the loss of control over national borders.

Jack Straw, then foreign secretary, and John Prescott, deputy prime minister, both urged Blair to delay implementing the policy. Prescott, for instance, warned that new arrivals would likely cluster in London and the South-East, exacerbating overcrowding and housing issues in lower-income areas. Despite these concerns, Blair proceeded with the policy, partly influenced by advice suggesting that the economic impact would be minimal.

Reflecting on the decision, Straw admitted, “We got it wrong.” He acknowledged that retaining restrictions on free movement might have mitigated some of the political backlash that culminated in the Brexit vote, though whether it would have changed the outcome remains speculative.

The documents also reveal Blair’s attempts to counter the political risks associated with the migration surge. He instructed advisers to frame the arrivals in a way that minimized perceptions of excessive benefit claims and focused on the narrative that many migrants would prefer working illegally in countries like Germany rather than legally in the UK. However, these efforts did little to stem growing public unease.

By the time of the referendum, the rapid rise in migration from EU member states had become a potent symbol for those advocating Brexit. It underscored broader anxieties about the UK’s ability to control its borders and the perceived costs of EU membership. The decision in 2004, and its unforeseen consequences, played a crucial role in creating the conditions that led to the UK’s eventual departure from the European Union.