Obituary - Jimmy Carter, former US Presidant dies aged 100

By Miko Keen 

Financial Times Inspired Content

Jimmy Carter, who passed away on Sunday 29th December aged 100, is widely regarded as the most impactful ex-president in U.S. history, thanks to his humanitarian efforts, global conflict mediation, and moral leadership. His one-term presidency (1977–81), however, is remembered as a mixed legacy, marked by significant achievements overshadowed by economic turmoil and the Iran hostage crisis.

A Presidency Marked by Contrasts
Carter’s presidency included notable accomplishments like the Panama Canal treaties, the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel, the Salt II nuclear arms limitation agreement with the Soviet Union, and NATO’s strategic policy shifts. However, domestic struggles with inflation and energy crises, alongside the protracted hostage crisis in Iran, eroded his public support. Despite Carter's efforts to redefine U.S. foreign policy with an emphasis on human rights, he was defeated in a landslide by Ronald Reagan in 1980.

A Second Life as a Humanitarian
Following his presidency, Carter quietly redirected his energy toward causes he believed an engineer with a strong social conscience should address. He became a hands-on advocate for affordable housing through Habitat for Humanity and established the Carter Center, an organization dedicated to democracy promotion, conflict resolution, and public health initiatives. His work earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002.

Carter also led election-monitoring missions worldwide and mediated key agreements, such as Ethiopia's peace process that led to Eritrea’s independence. He became a respected elder statesman whose influence extended far beyond his presidency.

Early Life and Political Ascent
Born in Plains, Georgia, in 1924, Carter maintained deep ties to his rural upbringing. After graduating from the U.S. Naval Academy and serving under Admiral Hyman Rickover, he returned home to manage the family’s peanut farm. Drawn to politics by his desire to modernize the South, he served in the Georgia Senate and later as governor, becoming a progressive voice during a time of racial and political transformation.

Carter capitalized on national Democratic disarray after Watergate and the Vietnam War, winning the presidency in 1976 with Walter Mondale as his running mate. However, his outsider status in Washington and his sometimes micromanaging style proved to be liabilities in navigating national governance.

Economic and Geopolitical Struggles
Carter’s presidency faced escalating economic challenges, including soaring inflation and interest rates, which culminated in "stagflation." His appointment of Paul Volcker as Federal Reserve Chair eventually stabilized the economy but came too late for Carter’s reelection campaign. On the international stage, the Iranian hostage crisis defined the latter part of his term, culminating in a failed rescue mission that damaged his administration’s reputation.

A Legacy Redefined
Post-presidency, Carter became a champion for human rights and democracy, often criticizing U.S. foreign policy when it contradicted these principles. He advocated for the closure of Guantánamo Bay and condemned human rights abuses globally, including those by U.S. allies.

Carter’s later years showcased the leadership qualities that might have extended his presidency had they been more fully realized during his time in office. While his presidency was fraught with challenges, his post-presidential contributions solidified his legacy as a global moral authority and humanitarian leader.

Carter had a great impact on the USA, and wider dipolomatic realtions, both during his timne as Presidant and during his projects afterwards - may he rest in peace. 

 

Ukraine seeks closer ties with Syria under new regime

By Miko Keen 

Financial Times Inspired Content

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has initiated a diplomatic outreach to Syria following the overthrow of Russian ally Bashar al-Assad, signaling a strategic effort to leverage Moscow’s diminished influence in the region. Ukrainian foreign minister Andriy Sybiha and agriculture minister Mykola Solskyi met with Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group in Damascus to discuss collaboration and rebuilding efforts.

Sybiha emphasized Ukraine’s support for Syria’s transformation into a state that respects international law and territorial integrity. He criticized the prior Assad and Putin regimes, describing them as grounded in "violence and torture." The Assad regime, which had fled to Moscow after its overthrow, previously recognized Russian control over parts of eastern Ukraine following Russia’s invasion in 2022, prompting Kyiv to sever diplomatic ties with Damascus.

In a public address, Zelenskyy expressed Ukraine’s readiness to contribute to Syria’s stabilization after years of Russian intervention. He linked Syria's recovery to Ukraine’s broader goal of restoring peace. As part of this effort, the initial shipment of 500 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat flour is set to arrive in Syria under the humanitarian “Grain from Ukraine” initiative, executed in partnership with the World Food Programme. Zelenskyy affirmed plans for additional aid and expanded cooperation across various sectors.

The fall of Assad has disrupted Syria-Russia relations, particularly in the realm of wheat supplies, which Syria had increasingly relied on due to war, sanctions, and economic collapse. Russian wheat shipments have ceased, intensifying hunger in a nation where bread remains a staple food. Ukraine’s wheat delivery, while modest, represents the first step in alleviating the crisis, with Kyiv promising more substantial shipments in the future.

Sybiha delivered a message from Zelenskyy to al-Sharaa, underscoring Ukraine’s commitment to assisting Syria in restoring stability, food security, and normalcy. The delivery of 20 wheat trucks was presented as a goodwill gesture, with Syrian officials highlighting their intention to deepen bilateral relations.

Syria’s foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, announced discussions on strategic political, economic, social, and scientific partnerships with Ukraine. At a joint press conference, Shaibani expressed Syria’s readiness to reengage with Arab and international partners and move past the estrangement under the previous regime. His upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia marks a significant step in Syria’s efforts to reintegrate into the regional and global community.

 

A changed Brexit vote....

By Miko Keen 

Financial Times Inspired Content

Recently disclosed Cabinet Office documents highlight how the UK government’s decision in 2004 to allow free movement for workers from new EU member states significantly shaped the political landscape leading to the Brexit referendum in 2016. Prime Minister Tony Blair’s administration opted for minimal restrictions on labor market access for citizens of 10 new EU countries, including Poland and Hungary, despite warnings from senior cabinet members about potential pressures on housing and the welfare system.

At the time, the Home Office estimated that only 5,000-13,000 migrants would arrive annually. This projection was dramatically off the mark, with net EU migration reaching 96,000 by 2005 and climbing to 142,000 by 2014. This substantial and unexpected influx of EU migrants became a focal point of public discontent, fueling anti-immigration sentiment and increasing skepticism about the UK’s membership in the EU. By the 2016 Brexit referendum, immigration had become one of the most contentious political issues, with many voters citing concerns over the strain on public services and the loss of control over national borders.

Jack Straw, then foreign secretary, and John Prescott, deputy prime minister, both urged Blair to delay implementing the policy. Prescott, for instance, warned that new arrivals would likely cluster in London and the South-East, exacerbating overcrowding and housing issues in lower-income areas. Despite these concerns, Blair proceeded with the policy, partly influenced by advice suggesting that the economic impact would be minimal.

Reflecting on the decision, Straw admitted, “We got it wrong.” He acknowledged that retaining restrictions on free movement might have mitigated some of the political backlash that culminated in the Brexit vote, though whether it would have changed the outcome remains speculative.

The documents also reveal Blair’s attempts to counter the political risks associated with the migration surge. He instructed advisers to frame the arrivals in a way that minimized perceptions of excessive benefit claims and focused on the narrative that many migrants would prefer working illegally in countries like Germany rather than legally in the UK. However, these efforts did little to stem growing public unease.

By the time of the referendum, the rapid rise in migration from EU member states had become a potent symbol for those advocating Brexit. It underscored broader anxieties about the UK’s ability to control its borders and the perceived costs of EU membership. The decision in 2004, and its unforeseen consequences, played a crucial role in creating the conditions that led to the UK’s eventual departure from the European Union.

 

Admissions of overseas tax evasion jump 22% in the UK

By Miko Keen 

Financial Times Inspired Content

The number of individuals in the UK admitting to not paying tax on overseas assets increased by 22% in the 2023-24 period, according to government data. A total of 5,643 people disclosed unpaid taxes on foreign assets to HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), up from 4,630 in the previous year. This rise has been attributed to HMRC’s expanded use of warning letters, increased data exchange with other countries, and heightened public awareness of international data-sharing initiatives.

The surge reflects the impact of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS), a framework developed by the OECD and adopted by 120 countries to automatically exchange financial account information. Participating jurisdictions include tax havens such as Switzerland, Bermuda, and the Cayman Islands. From 2027, the program will extend to include crypto asset exchanges.

To combat tax evasion, the UK government has allocated funding for 5,000 additional HMRC compliance officers. HMRC also uses sophisticated algorithms to detect discrepancies in offshore data, issuing “nudge letters” to individuals when anomalies are identified. Voluntary disclosures made through HMRC’s online Worldwide Disclosure Facility can reduce penalties, which can otherwise reach up to 200% of the owed tax and may include imprisonment for severe cases.

Tax experts believe improved data accuracy and the use of advanced analytics, including AI technology, are key factors behind the increase in disclosures. They also emphasize that awareness campaigns about CRS have encouraged more individuals to update their UK tax affairs. Despite these efforts, HMRC estimates a tax gap of £39.8 billion in 2022-23, with £5.5 billion attributed to evasion. Data from 2018-19 further indicated under-declared tax liabilities for approximately 4% of UK residents with foreign income, totaling £300 million.

As the government intensifies efforts to reduce tax avoidance, HMRC is expected to enhance its crackdown on offshore non-compliance, leveraging both existing frameworks and future expansions in information-sharing mechanisms.

Computers down in the US Treasury...

By Miko Keen 

Financial Times Inspired Content

A cybersecurity breach, attributed to a state-sponsored Chinese actor, has compromised the United States Department of the Treasury, as revealed in an official statement on Monday. The incident, facilitated via a third-party service provider, has been classified by the Treasury Department as a “major cybersecurity incident.”

In correspondence addressed to the Senate Banking Committee, accessed by the Financial Times, the Treasury disclosed that it had been alerted to the breach on December 8 by the software company BeyondTrust. The attacker reportedly exploited a security key to gain unauthorized access to several remote government workstations, ultimately retrieving unclassified documents stored within these systems.

“Based on available indicators, the incident has been attributed to a China state-sponsored Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actor,” the letter stated, highlighting that Treasury policy categorizes APT-related intrusions as significant security events.

The Treasury Department has since partnered with the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and other intelligence community entities to determine the scope and ramifications of the breach. Preliminary findings suggest that the threat actor no longer maintains access to Treasury systems or data.

A spokesperson for the Treasury reaffirmed the department’s dedication to protecting its infrastructure and data, stating, “We take all threats to our systems and the data we hold very seriously.” The spokesperson further emphasized the importance of ongoing collaboration with private and public sector partners to address evolving cybersecurity challenges.

Responding to the allegations, Liu Pengyu, a representative of the Chinese Embassy in Washington, remarked:
“We hope that relevant parties will adopt a professional and responsible attitude when characterizing cyber incidents, basing their conclusions on sufficient evidence rather than unfounded speculation and accusations.” Liu additionally urged the United States to refrain from using cybersecurity as a justification to malign China and to avoid spreading disinformation about purported Chinese hacking activities.

This breach represents the most recent in a series of cybersecurity incidents allegedly linked to Chinese actors targeting U.S. entities. In October, the Biden administration launched an investigation into unauthorized access to commercial telecommunications infrastructure, which both the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) attributed to individuals associated with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Reports suggested these actors targeted the devices of then-President-elect Donald Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, during the U.S. election period.

Highlighting the seriousness of these concerns, the U.S. Department of Commerce in September proposed measures to limit China’s access to sensitive American data, including a ban on Chinese software and hardware in vehicles equipped with internet connectivity.

Deficits and Debt - where does the UK stand?

Deficits and Debt - where does the UK stand? 

By Alex Nuth

Financial Times Inspired Content

Historically national debt was accepted as a temporary response to major events, such as wars. However, more recently deficits (the annual difference between government revenue and spending) have become much more frequent, so much so that the UK government has only recorded 5 budget surpluses since the early 1970s. One of the main causes of this change in the borrowing dynamics is the lower interest rates that the UK experiences. As a result of this abundance of debt and many years of deficits, the UK government now spends over 10% of its budget servicing debt (paying interest payments on the debt). This is a monumental figure that is around £102bn! The total public sector debt is even more stifling standing at over £2.7 trillion, which is £38k per person in the UK. As previously mentioned, the main consequence of all this debt is that the UK faces these stark interest payments which consume a substantial proportion of its budget. 

The PSNFL is an important economic measure used in the UK to assess the financial health of the public sector. Specifically, it represents the total liabilities of the public sector (like debts or obligations) minus its liquid financial assets (such as cash or easily sellable securities). This method of measurement is far more comprehensive than the other method used (PSND) because it shows lower net liabilities. Our transition to using the PSNFL means that we can borrow more as a nation. 

                          

How is a government budget deficit funded? 

Budget deficits are funded through means such as government bonds, in which the government promises to pay the nominal amount back. The main buyers of these bonds are pension funds, insurance companies, overseas investors, as well as the BoE in secondary markets. 

One of the main owners of this debt is the BoE which holds almost 25% of it. Many of these bonds are bought through quantitative easing (QE). If interest rates rise, bond prices would fall, potentially leading to significant losses for the Bank of England, which holds a substantial portion of these bonds.

What is a structural deficit? 

A structural deficit is part of the deficit that is unrelated to the stage in the economic cycle. An example of is the UKs long term spending commitments on the NHS, which is spending that the UK experiences no matter that the period of the economic cycle is.  

Another type of deficit is a cyclical deficit, which is the part related to the economic cycle.                                                           

 

National debt sustainability 

The UK operates on its own sovereign currency, the pound, and hence does not rely on any external printing or borrowing. However, this does come with some costs, such as fiscal dominance (when BoE forced to print money or keep interest rates low to finance debt). 

Ways to reduce national debt 

Increased productivity is one of the main drivers for reducing this debt as well as an increased working population which also contributes to economic growth in most cases. Austerity (reduced public spending to public services) is a controversial method while it impacts the vulnerable but is sometimes the only feasible option. A financial repression could also be an option which forces banks to hold government bonds using legal restrictions on interest rate levels and credit allocation. Other ways include delaying the transition to net zero, but this may be a trade-off between the new renewable technology and a reduction in national debt. Furthermore, a strain on international relations may occur from this method. The UK could also reduce its defense spending (although making NATO angry). Other than all of this, higher taxes (wealth taxes?) could be a sensible alternative. But capital flight may occur as a result. 

Lastly, currency debasement could reduce debt (whereby governments inflate their currency) by printing money causing the value of money to fall which benefits the government as this lower value of money lowers the value of their nominal debt, hence making it easier to pay off debt. However, this can come with some controversial political tension as shown in Covid-19 when the BoE was accused of ‘monetisation of government debt’ because of its QE programs being closely aligned with the timing of government spending. Of course, this method also has its flaws while the purchasing power of money is thwarted and hence people become poorer. 

To conclude, this topic of economics is an overly complex and comprehensive one which has roots in many other aspects of the economy, largely due to the significant influence of interest rates on the UK's economic output.

Prioritising loyalty over expertise - Trumps Presidential Appointments

Prioritising loyalty over expertise - Trumps Presidential Appointments

By Miko Keen

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his second term, his initial wave of appointments has drawn sharp criticism for perceived favoritism and questionable qualifications. Critics argue that Trump’s choices reflect a pattern of rewarding loyalty rather than prioritizing competence or experience for key roles.

For instance, his appointment of real estate mogul Steven Witkoff as a special envoy to the Middle East has been criticized for lacking any diplomatic or regional expertise. Similarly, Pete Hegseth, a Fox News contributor and former soldier, was nominated for Secretary of Defense despite limited high-level strategic experience. These picks illustrate Trump’s preference for allies over seasoned professionals, which raises concerns about the administration’s ability to handle complex policy challenges.

Another contentious nomination is Matt Gaetz, a Florida congressman mired in scandals, for Attorney General. Critics highlight his controversial history as emblematic of Trump’s tendency to choose divisive figures, potentially undermining public trust in institutions like the Department of Justice.

This approach underscores broader concerns about governance during Trump’s upcoming term, with experts warning about the potential erosion of institutional integrity. While political appointments often reflect a president's ideological leanings, the lack of qualifications in some of Trump’s choices is sparking bipartisan alarm. Observers worry these decisions could hinder the administration’s effectiveness, particularly in addressing nuanced domestic and international issues.

Such moves align with Trump’s long-standing governance style, prioritizing loyalty and media alignment over expertise, as he did during his first term. These developments have further polarized opinions about his leadership, with supporters applauding his rejection of political norms while critics fear long-term damage to democratic institutions. We have seen this movie before, and know the sequel is always worse .... now all we can do is wait and see how it turns out!